Warner Bros’ highly anticipated musical film “Wonka,” directed by Paul King, is generating early tracking results six weeks before its scheduled release on December 5. Box office analysts at The Quorum are predicting an opening weekend of $20 million to $23 million, but it’s important to note that this assessment is still preliminary and subject to potential adjustments.

What sets The Quorum apart is its unique ability to project box office performance six weeks in advance, offering a longer lead time compared to other tracking services, which typically project three weeks ahead.

Holiday moviegoing traditionally experiences a surge after Christmas when people have more free time to enjoy films. “Wonka” is positioned to follow in the footsteps of successful holiday musicals like “The Greatest Showman,” which had a $19 million six-day holiday launch and ultimately grossed $174.3 million. Family-oriented films and major releases tend to perform well during the holiday season, as demonstrated by “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” which opened at $12.4 million and achieved nearly a 15x multiple with a final domestic gross of $185.5 million. “Wonka,” being a family film, has the potential to resonate with a wide audience, including the heartland.

Comparatively, “Wonka” has drawn comparisons to pre-Christmas releases such as “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” ($36.2 million), “Bumblebee” ($21.7 million), and the 2014 adaptation of the Broadway musical “Annie” ($15.8 million).

The marketing campaign for “Wonka” is well underway, with two official trailers on the Warner Bros YouTube channel, amassing 31 million and 9 million views, respectively. Additionally, lead actor Timothée Chalamet is set to host Saturday Night Live on November 11 and graces the cover of GQ, contributing to the film’s visibility. Warner Bros has also distributed 17 one-sheet posters for the movie, demonstrating their commitment to its success.

Initial indications suggest that “Wonka” is gaining traction among under-35 males, a demographic different from the under-35 female audience that embraced “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” last year.

“Wonka” brings to life the origin story of the legendary inventor, magician, and chocolatier, Willy Wonka, showcasing how he became the iconic character we all know and love.

Notably, Warner Bros’ original 1971 film “Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factory,” based on Roald Dahl’s book “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” has achieved cult classic status and received an Oscar nomination in 1972. In 2005, Warner Bros rebooted the story with “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” directed by Tim Burton and starring Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka. This adaptation grossed $206.4 million domestically and $474.9 million worldwide, earning an Oscar nomination for Gabriella Pescucci’s costume design.